According to FiveThirtyEight’s Democratic primary model, Bernie Sanders is now the favourite to win 54 of the remaining 56 primaries and caucuses.
After Joe Biden’s abysmal finish, and Sanders’ strong lead on the popular vote in Iowa, the Vermont Senator is the favorite to win a staggering 55 primary contests in total. Biden is the favourite in his home state of Delaware, as well as Alabama.
FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season to find the most likely outcome for candidates. Before Monday night’s caucuses in Iowa, the forecast gave Biden the best chance of winning a majority of delegates.
Overall, the forecast shows Sanders with a 45 percent chance of winning the nomination.
FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver did warn that following Friday night’s Democratic debate, the forecast would likely change as new polls are released. “For what it’s worth, our model is programed to be just a teensy-tiny bit conservative because there’s no post debate polling yet,” Silver said on Twitter.
“And the presence of the debate means it’s a long four days between now and Tuesday. Debates have sometimes stopped momentum from post-Iowa surges.”
In next week’s New Hampshire primary, the model gives Sanders a 67 percent chance of winning the most votes. Polls in the Granite State have consistently showed Sanders ahead, while support for Joe Biden has plummeted in favor of Pete Buttigieg.
An earlier version of this article misstated the number of caucuses and primaries yet to come. There are total of 57 constituencies that vote in the Democratic primary. As Iowa, where Sanders was the favorite in the forecast, has already voted, there are 56 contests remaining.
