According to FiveThirtyEight’s revised Democratic primary forecast, Bernie Sanders is on track to win nearly 1,800 pledged delegates, with a one in two chance of winning a majority.
After winning the Nevada caucuses on Sunday, the Nate Silver’s forecast gives Sanders a 46 percent chance of winning more than half of pledged delegates. There is a 40 percent chance that nobody will win a majority, while Joe Biden’s chances are just 9 percent.
With such a crowded primary field, it is likely that nobody will win more than 50 percent of pledged delegates. Sanders has, by far, the best chance of winning the most delegates, with odds of 69 percent for winning a plurality. Joe Biden has a 17 percent chance, while Michael Bloomberg’s chances are 11 percent.
“Put simply, the model now puts Sanders in a modestly stronger position across the board,” FiveThirtyEight’s politics editor Sarah Frostenson wrote on Sunday.
“As always in the wake of a caucus or primary, treat the forecast as a bit of an educated guess until we get more polls — the model will quickly update if new polling differs from what it expects. But the picture here isn’t all that fuzzy — Sanders is the front-runner in a race that remains extremely fluid.”
Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, Sanders is favored to win most states, with a 79 percent chance of winning the most votes in California, odds of 61 percent in Texas and 81 percent in Colorado.
The only Super Tuesday states where Sanders is not the favorite are Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar’s home state, and Alabama.
