Nathan Robinson, writing for Guardian US has called for Warren supporters who want a progressive nominee to be savvy about the Iowa caucus system, noting that if Warren, who has dropped off in the polls of late, does make 15 percent at some caucuses, Joe Biden will be the net beneficiary.
This is because with the Iowa caucus system, in a second round of voting supporters of candidates who don’t make the 15 percent threshold can redistribute themselves to others, which will mostly benefit Biden if Warren makes 15 percent, especially if Pete Buttigieg on the other hand does not reach viability.
If this were to occur, it could potentially result in a huge boost for Biden. Emerson pollster Brandon Kane, speaking about the poll released Sunday night noted “an important thing for Sanders’ campaign is how Warren’s support varies across the state.
Sanders is the second choice of nearly half of Warren supporters. On the other hand, 31 percent of Pete Buttigieg supporters expressed their second preference as Biden, along with 39 percent of Klobuchar supporters, the latter appearing highly unlikely to attain viability in more than a few if any precincts.
With the Democratic establishment eager to grab any chance to undermine Sanders’ frontrunner status, it may not just be winning but the margin of any potential win that is crucial to the Sanders campaign.
The impact of a big win could be twofold, both in reaffirming the narrative around Sanders being frontrunner, but also in contributing to a bigger delegate count for Sanders in order to ensure a win in the first round of voting at the convention in July.