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Sanders leads in key early states

Bernie Sanders
Photo via Bernie 2016

As the race starts to heat up, we take an in depth look at where Bernie Sanders and the other candidates are standing in the key states as well as nationally.


As the key, first in the nation contest, Iowa is seeing a lot of polls, of varying quality and with a variety of results.

The rolling average for the past two weeks puts Sanders in the lead with 24 percent, over Joe Biden with 21 percent, Pete Buttigieg at 17 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 14.5 percent, and Amy Klobuchar at 9 percent, with all others at less than 5 percent.

In his best poll, an Emerson Poll released Monday, Sanders had a 9 percent lead over Joe Biden. He’s in the lead in 4 of the 6 most recent polls, including the poll with the largest sample, the CBS News/YouGov Poll.

Based on these polls, Sanders and Joe Biden will definitely reach viability and win delegates, as will be the case for Pete Buttigieg at most precincts. One to watch is Elizabeth Warren; if she doesn’t reach viability, a lot of her votes could go to Bernie Sanders.

Particularly good news for Sanders from the CBS/YouGov poll – it’s well known he’ll do well with young voters, and 35 percent of those surveyed say they will be caucusing for the first time, a group likely to be young and favourable to him.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire will be a key contest after Iowa sets the tone for the race, and his big win there last time was a crucial legup for Sanders.

The rolling average for the last two weeks puts Sanders well in front on 24 percent, with Joe Biden on 16 percent, Pete Buttigieg on 15 percent and Elizabeth Warren on 13 percent. Best of the rest are Amy Klobuchar 7 percent and Tulsi Gabbard 5 percent.

This could be a make or break contest for candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar; if Warren falls below 15 percent here after also having a bad performance in New Hampshire, her campaign may well be on its, with much of her support likely to go to Bernie

Sanders’ support appears best set to hold up over the next week and a half prior to the primary, with 74 percent of those likely to vote for him saying they support him strongly, compared to just 52 percent for Biden, 51 percent for Warren and 43 percent for Biden, according to the NBC News Marist Poll.

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